An Educated Guess is Still Educated

Good metrics/data is extremely important in problem solving as it provides objective feedback as to whether you are moving along the right course. In a perfect world we would have exactly as many metrics as we needed to use telling us that we are indeed correct.

But, as we all know too well, this isn't a perfect world. Metrics, when done incorrectly, can hinder you more than if you had to make the same decision in a vacuum. Indeed, bad metrics come in multiple forms; the data itself could be incorrect or the data gathered can miss the point of what it was trying to solve. And all metrics, good or bad, take resources to collect, review, and turn into something (whether useful or not).

Choosing what to measure as a metric of success throughout a project is just as essential to the project as the outcome. There are at least three ways to approach this:

1: Look at all data available.

This solution is beneficial in that you learn why certain parts of the data are important and can use that newfound knowledge to sort through. This approach also recognizes that it is impossible to know everything and that not all data will be available. However, the drawback of this approach is that it is draining on time and other resources to do so.

The level of understanding achieved by being thorough is the gold standard of review and there is no perfect substitute for it. However, insisting on thoroughness in spite of external pressures can bog down a project at critical junctures.

2: Make an educated guess.

This is a scary one. Sometimes there is no way you can pull together the necessary data to get to the full picture. So you make the call and hope that you are right. The drawbacks to this (more likely to make a mistake, difficult to convince other people you are right if they disagree, etc.) are obvious, which is why it is often frowned upon in professional settings. However, the benefits of this approach are often underrated; this allows for quick resolutions and, if you do come up with the correct answer, you have saved your team enormous resources. Further, people often know far more about the subtleties of a topic they understand than they may initially think, making the guess more educated and likely to be correct. Here, there is more uncertainty and more chances for things to go wrong, but it is at the direct reduction of cost.

3: Repeatedly reassess your approach.

Often, when approaching a problem, it is tempting to pick one of the two paradigms for the overall project - or just in life in general - and stick with it (literally to a fault). Recognizing that both approaches have their place is key to ensuring good project flow and momentum.

Pictured: I needed a photo so it looked good on the homepage. Pretend this is super relevant and interesting.

The true cost of perfect work is resources. And sometimes, you don't need (or can't get together) perfect work in time. The judgment call to make is whether the imperfections that are currently in the document (or whatever project you are working on) are worth the resources - including your own time - to remove them. If not, it is better to leave them in.

TL;DR: An advantage of doing all research possible is thoroughness and an advantage of making an educated guess is efficiency. It is critical to balance these concerns when deciding how to approach a project and is an important consideration that can be revisited if not working.